Tornado Outbreak Likely Today

A classic "race-chasing" event taking shape today across Kansas, as a significant severe weather outbreak including large/violent long tracked tornadoes appear a solid bet today. Currently sitting in Salina,KS this morning as ingredients are coming together for a very dangerous situation this afternoon through tonight.


Chase Target: Hutchinson,KS

Discussion. A midlevel stratus deck is currently sitting overhead this morning, but latest Visible Satellite imagery, so sufficient clearing now taking place over SW Kansas which will spread northeastward throughout the morning. Currently in Salina, the latest surface observations show the dewpoint sitting at a very "soupy" 68 degrees with mid to upper 60's all the way down through central Oklahoma. A dryline was setting up at to the southwest with Garden City, KS showing a dewpoint temperature of 59. Goodland,KS was at 55 and Liberal,KS was at 56. An extremely powerful storm will move out of the four corners region today, and place much of the central plain states under a HIGH risk of severe weather and large tornadoes. A 110knt upper level jet with 500mb winds out of the southwest at 50-60kts and 850mb winds out of the south at 50+kts will create a very highly sheared environment. Shear parameters across SC-C and eastern Kansas are reaching "off the chart' levels come later this afternoon. CAPE values according to the latest run of the RUC are showing greater than 4000-5000 j/kg near the Pratt/Greensburg areas at 0z this evening. At the mid-levels of the atmosphere, 700mb temperatures around 10-12 degrees celcius will help to strongly CAP the warm sector much of the afternoon supressing storm development until around or after 3:00p.m. Storms should fire first near the surface low and warm front in Nebraska and then strong supercell development will explode late this afternoon along the dryline in Kansas. Storm motions today will be almost unchaseable as theywill be hauling NE at 45-60mph. The area from Salina,KS to Lawrence,KS to Emporia,KS to Wichita,KS to Greensburg,KS and then back up to Salina,KS stands the greatest threat of significant severe weather/including Long-tracked tornadoes from 4-9 p.m. today and tonight. After 9:00p.m. folks in the KC metro area should be paying VERY close attention to the situation out to the west. As storms fire out in central and southern Kansas, supercells will be the favorable storm mode, however once the cold front overtakes the dryline, strong linear forcing will begin to take place forcing the storms to congeal into a VERY powerful line. Due to the strong dynamics of the storm system, straight line winds of 80-100mph as well as hail the size of baseballs or larger will be possible. Also, embedded supercells within the line of storms will still have the potential to produce tornadoes/some strong well into the night as low level shear profiles continue to support the threat. IF the storms remain supercellular in nature for longer than anticipated(which is possible)a greater threat for large tornadoes would impact the KC metro area late this evening.

*This is a potentially extremely dangerous and violent situation today, and people need to be aware of the developing situation late this afternoon through tonight. The Storm Prediction Center out of Norman,OK has placed a wide area of the Kansas and eastern Missouri under a HIGH risk of severe weather today INCLUDING the KC metro area*

The SPC can be qouted as saying this morning,"THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY. "

Tornado Season rages on...

Well the 2008 severe weather season has been one for the books. Tornadoes have been reported almost everday for the past 2 weeks. If you are a chaser, you have likely captured some great storm footage.

I chased the severe weather/tornado outbreaks on May 22/May23rd over central Kansas. Was able to see tornadoes on both days. The first day, I got a tornado just to the east of Dighton,KS and a second tornado on the 23rd near I-70 and Quinter,KS. Going to have to be fairly brief with the report today as I will be chasing today and tomorrow. I have yet to make a decision on which way to head today as there are two areas of interest. Central KS and NE KS/SE NE look good as well. Will refine a target area within the next few hours.

I will update my mileage and report section. More to come later....

Tornado count: 2

Hail storm count: 4

Miles traveled: 1,609.73

Total Chase Season Miles: 4,328.50