The picture below is the 12z GFS Dewpoint projection for 0z Thursday(Wednesday evening). The 500 mb winds look to be around 40kts in southwestern Oklahoma as well as the best dewpoints ~ 60 degress. Theta-E advection looks somewhat decent as well. As of this point, which is highly variable, a possible target from Woodward to Altus, OK down to a Wichita Falls, TX line looks to be a good target.
For the chase season, i have come up with a chart for my chase chances for each give situation. Here is the breakdown.
Not likely= 10-20%
Slight chance= 21-40%
Moderate= 41-60%
Likely= 61-80%
Very likely= 81-89%
Definite= 90-100%
Right now i would put the chase chance at 25% for wednesday
SLIGHT CHANCE
Thursday looks like the better chase day of the two. Both surface and upper air dynamics look to be much better on this day, for a severe weather episode.
Look below
The above picture is from today's 12z GFS valid at 0z Friday(Thursday evening). Here you can see the 60-65 degree dewpoint temperatures stretch all the way up into EC Kansas over to WC and N Missouri. The 500 and 850 mb winds are much stronger on Thursday with 60-80 kt 500 MB winds stretching all the way up through KS and MO. Temperatures across this area appear to be near 70-75 degrees. This undoubtdly could be an active severe wx day across parts of the C/S plains if the models continue to trend this way.
A target based on the 12z projections would put me in an west to east line from Wichita to an Indepence to a Pittsburg, KS line.
This day holds much greater severe wx potential, so I will place chances at this time for Thursday at 45%.
MODERATE CHANCE
Chase chances and model trends will again be updated here on the blog very soon....
AP
