It does appear that the next good chase day is shaping up for this coming Thursday. A VERY strong system and low pressure is forecasted to enter the central plain states. I am not going to get into any real details at this point, since this even is still 4-5 days out and things will change between now and then. However, a very dynamic system with excellent wind shear(but will it be unidirectional?)will be in place over a decent sized warm sector. The main problems at this point would be the "stacking" nature of the low and the veering of the 850 winds. Also, moisture return could pose a problem with current model projections only placing low 60 dews over the area of interest, with the exception of extreme SE Kansas and NE Oklahoma. Right now severe weather and possibly tornadic supercells appear possible mainly across....
Central/South Central/South Western Iowa
South Eastern Nebraska
North Eastern/East Central/South Eastern Kansas
North Western/West Central/South Western Missouri
Central/Eastern Oklahoma
At this point, the highest risk of Tornadic supercells would be from the Kansas City Metro area and points southwest through SE Kansas and down through Eastern Oklahoma where the best instabliity axis will be.
This storm has amazing potential, but with the lacking moisture return I would say this is a high end SLIGHT risk-to low end MODERATE risk type setup. However, if better moisture can return in the order of >65 Td's into NE KS and NW MO then a HIGH risk could be issued from the Storm Prediction Center.
More later.....
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In looking at the progs, I am seeing low 60s coming in on the strong S/SW surface and 850 wind. I see a good LLJ forming that will keep things going.
I would like to see CAPE values of 2000 to make sure of busting the cap, but think 1500-1750 will do it.
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