A classic "race-chasing" event taking shape today across Kansas, as a significant severe weather outbreak including large/violent long tracked tornadoes appear a solid bet today. Currently sitting in Salina,KS this morning as ingredients are coming together for a very dangerous situation this afternoon through tonight.
Chase Target: Hutchinson,KS
Discussion. A midlevel stratus deck is currently sitting overhead this morning, but latest Visible Satellite imagery, so sufficient clearing now taking place over SW Kansas which will spread northeastward throughout the morning. Currently in Salina, the latest surface observations show the dewpoint sitting at a very "soupy" 68 degrees with mid to upper 60's all the way down through central Oklahoma. A dryline was setting up at to the southwest with Garden City, KS showing a dewpoint temperature of 59. Goodland,KS was at 55 and Liberal,KS was at 56. An extremely powerful storm will move out of the four corners region today, and place much of the central plain states under a HIGH risk of severe weather and large tornadoes. A 110knt upper level jet with 500mb winds out of the southwest at 50-60kts and 850mb winds out of the south at 50+kts will create a very highly sheared environment. Shear parameters across SC-C and eastern Kansas are reaching "off the chart' levels come later this afternoon. CAPE values according to the latest run of the RUC are showing greater than 4000-5000 j/kg near the Pratt/Greensburg areas at 0z this evening. At the mid-levels of the atmosphere, 700mb temperatures around 10-12 degrees celcius will help to strongly CAP the warm sector much of the afternoon supressing storm development until around or after 3:00p.m. Storms should fire first near the surface low and warm front in Nebraska and then strong supercell development will explode late this afternoon along the dryline in Kansas. Storm motions today will be almost unchaseable as theywill be hauling NE at 45-60mph. The area from Salina,KS to Lawrence,KS to Emporia,KS to Wichita,KS to Greensburg,KS and then back up to Salina,KS stands the greatest threat of significant severe weather/including Long-tracked tornadoes from 4-9 p.m. today and tonight. After 9:00p.m. folks in the KC metro area should be paying VERY close attention to the situation out to the west. As storms fire out in central and southern Kansas, supercells will be the favorable storm mode, however once the cold front overtakes the dryline, strong linear forcing will begin to take place forcing the storms to congeal into a VERY powerful line. Due to the strong dynamics of the storm system, straight line winds of 80-100mph as well as hail the size of baseballs or larger will be possible. Also, embedded supercells within the line of storms will still have the potential to produce tornadoes/some strong well into the night as low level shear profiles continue to support the threat. IF the storms remain supercellular in nature for longer than anticipated(which is possible)a greater threat for large tornadoes would impact the KC metro area late this evening.
*This is a potentially extremely dangerous and violent situation today, and people need to be aware of the developing situation late this afternoon through tonight. The Storm Prediction Center out of Norman,OK has placed a wide area of the Kansas and eastern Missouri under a HIGH risk of severe weather today INCLUDING the KC metro area*
The SPC can be qouted as saying this morning,"THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY. "
Thursday, June 5, 2008
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
Tornado Season rages on...
Well the 2008 severe weather season has been one for the books. Tornadoes have been reported almost everday for the past 2 weeks. If you are a chaser, you have likely captured some great storm footage.
I chased the severe weather/tornado outbreaks on May 22/May23rd over central Kansas. Was able to see tornadoes on both days. The first day, I got a tornado just to the east of Dighton,KS and a second tornado on the 23rd near I-70 and Quinter,KS. Going to have to be fairly brief with the report today as I will be chasing today and tomorrow. I have yet to make a decision on which way to head today as there are two areas of interest. Central KS and NE KS/SE NE look good as well. Will refine a target area within the next few hours.
I will update my mileage and report section. More to come later....
Tornado count: 2
Hail storm count: 4
Miles traveled: 1,609.73
Total Chase Season Miles: 4,328.50
I chased the severe weather/tornado outbreaks on May 22/May23rd over central Kansas. Was able to see tornadoes on both days. The first day, I got a tornado just to the east of Dighton,KS and a second tornado on the 23rd near I-70 and Quinter,KS. Going to have to be fairly brief with the report today as I will be chasing today and tomorrow. I have yet to make a decision on which way to head today as there are two areas of interest. Central KS and NE KS/SE NE look good as well. Will refine a target area within the next few hours.
I will update my mileage and report section. More to come later....
Tornado count: 2
Hail storm count: 4
Miles traveled: 1,609.73
Total Chase Season Miles: 4,328.50
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Catching up and Today's Threat
Well its been a very long while since I have A.) had time to update this blog and B.) had time to chase. I now have 5 consecutive weeks off from work and then means time to get out in the field and chase!
Just an update from my last chase back on May 1st, which was largely a BUST due to time constraints. I traveled down to Chanute, KS and back but the "real" storms did not get cranking until just after sunset. Some violent EF-3 tornadoes struck the KC metro area around the liberty/Gladstone areas and did some pretty destructive damage. Anyway, I will update the mileage and stats to reflect this latest chase.
Today, however, I am sitting at the Days Inn in Hays,KS. A significant severe weather outbreak seems on tap, with the possibility of violent long-tracked tornadoes. Great moisture and excellent shear are in place. Cape by 0z should be around 3500-4000 J/KG. Storm motions however with be "racing" to the north and northeast at around 40 mph. I am hoping for the classic "right-turner" today along the triple point. However, considering the storm motions today, any storms along the warm front boundary will very quickly cross into much more stable air. A comprimising target farther south along the Dry line seems a more logical choice at this point in time. I will be sitting in Hays through early afternoon to see how things are going to shake out.
This is only day 1 of what appears to be a string of good severe weather days. I will be chasing through atleast Saturday, so stay tuned for later updates!
Tornado count: 0
Hail storm count: 2
Miles traveled: 269.26
Total Chase Season Miles: 2,718.77
Just an update from my last chase back on May 1st, which was largely a BUST due to time constraints. I traveled down to Chanute, KS and back but the "real" storms did not get cranking until just after sunset. Some violent EF-3 tornadoes struck the KC metro area around the liberty/Gladstone areas and did some pretty destructive damage. Anyway, I will update the mileage and stats to reflect this latest chase.
Today, however, I am sitting at the Days Inn in Hays,KS. A significant severe weather outbreak seems on tap, with the possibility of violent long-tracked tornadoes. Great moisture and excellent shear are in place. Cape by 0z should be around 3500-4000 J/KG. Storm motions however with be "racing" to the north and northeast at around 40 mph. I am hoping for the classic "right-turner" today along the triple point. However, considering the storm motions today, any storms along the warm front boundary will very quickly cross into much more stable air. A comprimising target farther south along the Dry line seems a more logical choice at this point in time. I will be sitting in Hays through early afternoon to see how things are going to shake out.
This is only day 1 of what appears to be a string of good severe weather days. I will be chasing through atleast Saturday, so stay tuned for later updates!
Tornado count: 0
Hail storm count: 2
Miles traveled: 269.26
Total Chase Season Miles: 2,718.77
Sunday, April 27, 2008
Severe Weather Possible Thursday 5/1/08
It does appear that the next good chase day is shaping up for this coming Thursday. A VERY strong system and low pressure is forecasted to enter the central plain states. I am not going to get into any real details at this point, since this even is still 4-5 days out and things will change between now and then. However, a very dynamic system with excellent wind shear(but will it be unidirectional?)will be in place over a decent sized warm sector. The main problems at this point would be the "stacking" nature of the low and the veering of the 850 winds. Also, moisture return could pose a problem with current model projections only placing low 60 dews over the area of interest, with the exception of extreme SE Kansas and NE Oklahoma. Right now severe weather and possibly tornadic supercells appear possible mainly across....
Central/South Central/South Western Iowa
South Eastern Nebraska
North Eastern/East Central/South Eastern Kansas
North Western/West Central/South Western Missouri
Central/Eastern Oklahoma
At this point, the highest risk of Tornadic supercells would be from the Kansas City Metro area and points southwest through SE Kansas and down through Eastern Oklahoma where the best instabliity axis will be.
This storm has amazing potential, but with the lacking moisture return I would say this is a high end SLIGHT risk-to low end MODERATE risk type setup. However, if better moisture can return in the order of >65 Td's into NE KS and NW MO then a HIGH risk could be issued from the Storm Prediction Center.
More later.....
Central/South Central/South Western Iowa
South Eastern Nebraska
North Eastern/East Central/South Eastern Kansas
North Western/West Central/South Western Missouri
Central/Eastern Oklahoma
At this point, the highest risk of Tornadic supercells would be from the Kansas City Metro area and points southwest through SE Kansas and down through Eastern Oklahoma where the best instabliity axis will be.
This storm has amazing potential, but with the lacking moisture return I would say this is a high end SLIGHT risk-to low end MODERATE risk type setup. However, if better moisture can return in the order of >65 Td's into NE KS and NW MO then a HIGH risk could be issued from the Storm Prediction Center.
More later.....
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Chase Report: 4/23/08 and looking ahead....
Wow! What a day I had yesterday on my first ever "solo" chase in Texas. Started the day in Amarillo as I left my hotel room at the Days Inn around 11:00 am. I then jumped on I-25 and headed south to lubbock. Upon getting some data in Lubbock I quickly realized that the sweet spot was going to be near the town of Abilene, Texas along and west of there on I-20. So from Lubbock I picked up HWY 84 and headed southeast to intercept I-20 about 40 miles to the west of Abilene. As I got about 50 miles southeast of Lubbock I noticed a storm exploding on radar to the northwest of the town of Snyder,TX. At this point I was about 30 miles to the north of Snyder and figured I had two options.
1. I could either turn around and go back to the north, which would effectively ruin me for the rest of the day
OR
2. I could do my best to try to get south and out ahead of the storm
So with those choices in mind, I decided that I had a decent chance to out-run the storm and get south of it. Boy was I wrong!
I got cored badly by this storm about 20 miles to the northwest of Snyder. It got so bad at one point, that I could not even see the front of the hood of my car. It was Zero-Visibility! I got pelted for a good 10-15 minutes with nickel-sized hail and blinding rain. At this point I could not go anywhere, so I pulled over, or so I thought...lol. As it began to clear up just a bit, I realized that I had not pulled over at all. In fact, I was right smack in the middle of the road! YIKES! Fortunately, there was little to no traffic, and anybody that was on the road was not moving.
Once I got out ahead of the storm, I stopped and got out to sneak a peak, and what a beast it was! WOW! I then tried to re-intercept the storm near the town of Roby,TX. I continued past Snyder on HWY 84 and then picked up I-20 and headed east for about 10 miles. At that point, I picked up HWY 70 and went north to Roby. The storm had moved to quickly to get ahead of it, so in order to avoid another "core-session" I stopped and waited it out. Once the storm passed I knew I had to call it a day and start the trip back home. I picked up HWY 180 in Roby and headed east until I picked up HWY 277 which took me through Seymour and Wichita Falls,TX and up through Lawton,OK and then up to Oklahoma City,Ok where i spent the night at the Super 8 Fairgrounds on the northwest side of town. I left there about 6:00 am this morning and arrived back in Lee's Summit around 11:15 am. All in all it was an awesome experience, one that I will definitely remember.
As we look aheady to next week, I have an interesting situation developing. My dad has a FREE United Airlines ticket voucher that must be used by May 18th. Seeing as how with work being the way it is, next week would be the only oppurtunity I would have to use it. So if a chase situation evolves the early part of next week(Mon-Wed) with a good travel distance (I.E. TX panhandle or Texas in general) I could potentially fly to that location and save some money by just using a rental car. We shall see. Current model indications show the next GOOD chase oppurtunity would be out in western KS next Thursday. I have to fly to Houston,TX on Friday, so thursday would be a little late. If it moves up to Wednesday or Thursday, then I may have an oppurtunity. I will keep an eye on the model runs.
More Later this weekend....
Tornado count: 0
Hail storm count: 2
Miles traveled: 1,535.19
Total Chase Season Miles: 2,449.51
1. I could either turn around and go back to the north, which would effectively ruin me for the rest of the day
OR
2. I could do my best to try to get south and out ahead of the storm
So with those choices in mind, I decided that I had a decent chance to out-run the storm and get south of it. Boy was I wrong!
I got cored badly by this storm about 20 miles to the northwest of Snyder. It got so bad at one point, that I could not even see the front of the hood of my car. It was Zero-Visibility! I got pelted for a good 10-15 minutes with nickel-sized hail and blinding rain. At this point I could not go anywhere, so I pulled over, or so I thought...lol. As it began to clear up just a bit, I realized that I had not pulled over at all. In fact, I was right smack in the middle of the road! YIKES! Fortunately, there was little to no traffic, and anybody that was on the road was not moving.
Once I got out ahead of the storm, I stopped and got out to sneak a peak, and what a beast it was! WOW! I then tried to re-intercept the storm near the town of Roby,TX. I continued past Snyder on HWY 84 and then picked up I-20 and headed east for about 10 miles. At that point, I picked up HWY 70 and went north to Roby. The storm had moved to quickly to get ahead of it, so in order to avoid another "core-session" I stopped and waited it out. Once the storm passed I knew I had to call it a day and start the trip back home. I picked up HWY 180 in Roby and headed east until I picked up HWY 277 which took me through Seymour and Wichita Falls,TX and up through Lawton,OK and then up to Oklahoma City,Ok where i spent the night at the Super 8 Fairgrounds on the northwest side of town. I left there about 6:00 am this morning and arrived back in Lee's Summit around 11:15 am. All in all it was an awesome experience, one that I will definitely remember.
As we look aheady to next week, I have an interesting situation developing. My dad has a FREE United Airlines ticket voucher that must be used by May 18th. Seeing as how with work being the way it is, next week would be the only oppurtunity I would have to use it. So if a chase situation evolves the early part of next week(Mon-Wed) with a good travel distance (I.E. TX panhandle or Texas in general) I could potentially fly to that location and save some money by just using a rental car. We shall see. Current model indications show the next GOOD chase oppurtunity would be out in western KS next Thursday. I have to fly to Houston,TX on Friday, so thursday would be a little late. If it moves up to Wednesday or Thursday, then I may have an oppurtunity. I will keep an eye on the model runs.
More Later this weekend....
Tornado count: 0
Hail storm count: 2
Miles traveled: 1,535.19
Total Chase Season Miles: 2,449.51
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Still a go for Possible Tornadoes in Texas Today
Sitting in AMA this morning, and am planning to head down to Lubbock in about an hour. I will get some data there and with a decent road network, I will make a decison from there. The latest RUC does show some oppurtunity last this afternoon and evening in the corridor that Gabe just mentioned.0-3km SRH values are spiking between around 450 or 500 in this area(WOW) and SBCAPE is still forecasted to be around 3500 j/kg. Also, LI's are forecasted to be between -6 and -10. We also should receive backing 850mb winds at around 25-40kts. 500mb winds should be between 35-45kts and streaming in out of the west. Obviously the concerns of early morning convection and subsidence behind this is a concern. Hopefully the picture will begin to become clearer in the next 2-3 hours.
I am still hoping for decent insolation behind this convection and late afternoon initiation around 4:00 pm this afternoon. I will try to get an update out from Lubbock.
I am still hoping for decent insolation behind this convection and late afternoon initiation around 4:00 pm this afternoon. I will try to get an update out from Lubbock.
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Good evening from Amarillo!
Well I made to Amarillo, TX around 6:50 pm this evening and enjoyed a very nice steak dinner at the famous Big Texan Steakhouse here in Amarillo. I must say it was well worth it!
Getting ready to hit the sack and catch some well needed Z's. However here are my forecast thoughts for tomorrow's event as of this time.
The latest run of the NAM has me pretty excited about the area along I-20 just west of Abilene. It looks very sweet at 0Z tomorrow "IF" this run of the NAM verifies. It should be noted that the model continuity has been just downright horrible over the past few weeks, so the setup could look completely different in the morning. We are also going to have to hope that early morning convection and rain cooled air doesnt inhibit instability parameters too much. As of this moment I am going to target Sweetwater,TX along I-20. This can and will likely change in the morning, so this target is only pre-liminary. I will update in the morning.
Here is to hoping we finally get some backing of the winds and good tornado chances tomorrow!
Goodnight from Amarillo!!
Getting ready to hit the sack and catch some well needed Z's. However here are my forecast thoughts for tomorrow's event as of this time.
The latest run of the NAM has me pretty excited about the area along I-20 just west of Abilene. It looks very sweet at 0Z tomorrow "IF" this run of the NAM verifies. It should be noted that the model continuity has been just downright horrible over the past few weeks, so the setup could look completely different in the morning. We are also going to have to hope that early morning convection and rain cooled air doesnt inhibit instability parameters too much. As of this moment I am going to target Sweetwater,TX along I-20. This can and will likely change in the morning, so this target is only pre-liminary. I will update in the morning.
Here is to hoping we finally get some backing of the winds and good tornado chances tomorrow!
Goodnight from Amarillo!!
Monday, April 21, 2008
Severe Weather Likely In TX/OK Panhandles on 04/23/08
Its been awhile, but I am going to have to keep this brief at this point. I have been extremely busy with work the past 3 weeks and just arrived back from Minneapolis early this morning.
I have alot to get done this afternoon. I am getting ready to head to Best Buy to try to find a new charger cable for my camcorder. I am also going to invest in the latest version of Microsoft Streets and Trips. I lost my mapping software CD for my chasing laptop, and having mapping software on the fly is crucial. It is a must-have.
Anyway, I have to admit that at this point I am excited about Wednesday's prospects. It looks to be my first "official" panhandle chase. I made a brief appearance in the TX panhandle near Shamrock and Mclean last season, but due to time constraints couldnt make it to the real action spots. This week, I do not have to leave for work until Friday, so this comes at a perfect time for me to make it down to the panhandles.
As of this moment, my tentative plans are to prepare some things this afternoon, and then get a good nights sleep tonight as I am just flat-out exhausted from work this past weekend. I am planning on leaving the house at 9:00 am tomorrow, which should get me to Amarillo around 6:00 pm or so. I have always wanted to visit the "Big Texan" restaurant and have never been able to. I definitely plan on having dinner there upon my arrival tomorrow evening.
Again, chase prospects look good, with discrete supercells a good possibility on Wednesday. I must get to my errands, so I will try to update with more forecast specifics later this evening.
I have alot to get done this afternoon. I am getting ready to head to Best Buy to try to find a new charger cable for my camcorder. I am also going to invest in the latest version of Microsoft Streets and Trips. I lost my mapping software CD for my chasing laptop, and having mapping software on the fly is crucial. It is a must-have.
Anyway, I have to admit that at this point I am excited about Wednesday's prospects. It looks to be my first "official" panhandle chase. I made a brief appearance in the TX panhandle near Shamrock and Mclean last season, but due to time constraints couldnt make it to the real action spots. This week, I do not have to leave for work until Friday, so this comes at a perfect time for me to make it down to the panhandles.
As of this moment, my tentative plans are to prepare some things this afternoon, and then get a good nights sleep tonight as I am just flat-out exhausted from work this past weekend. I am planning on leaving the house at 9:00 am tomorrow, which should get me to Amarillo around 6:00 pm or so. I have always wanted to visit the "Big Texan" restaurant and have never been able to. I definitely plan on having dinner there upon my arrival tomorrow evening.
Again, chase prospects look good, with discrete supercells a good possibility on Wednesday. I must get to my errands, so I will try to update with more forecast specifics later this evening.
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
Chase Account 3/31/08
Well I have to say for my first chase of 2008, it was a pretty solid success. For really the first time, I chose a solid target(Ardmore,OK) went there, and it verified.
I left the Super 8 Wichita east/Kellogg hotel at 9:00 a.m. and blasted down I-35. I arrived in OKC at around 11:10 a.m. and stopped at a Mc'Donalds to pick up a quick bite to eat. Drove down then to Moore and picked up some wifi at a Super 8 there. Decided at that point, that I would head on down to Pauls Valley, OK and check out the latest model progs from there. Picked up some wifi in Pauls Valley and saw towers blowing up to the south. Got back on I-35 and flew down to Ardmore. After driving the 43 miles from Pauls Valley to Ardmore, I noticed on the Threatnet radar that a cell was really getting cooking back behind me to the north. This cell became SVR warned quickly and produced up to 2.5 inch hail near the town of Davis,OK and then over to the town of Sulphur. After nearly getting "cored" near Davis, I shot back down the interstate to get to the south of the storm. I decided to pull over on one of the scenic overlooks to get a better view, and ran into some chasers there. It was a real thrill for me to get to this point. After a few years of really struggling to get to the right spot on the right storm and see some actual chasers who are "well known", I finally feel like I am really learning and getting better.
After leaving the cell in near Davis, moved back down to Ardmore, where I sat and watched radar for about 30 minutes. Obviously, since I have to be back to work on Wednesday, and needed the day on Tuesday to do some laundry and what not, I did not wanted to follow the newly formed supercells into NE Texas. So at around 4:15 p.m. I decided to call it a day and make the trek all the way back up I-35 to KC. Made a stop in Norman, OK and then again in El Dorado, KS for gas and some food and arrived back at home around 11:15 p.m, with a good feeling after my first chase of the 2008 season.
Target Verified: Yes (Severe Storm 20 miles to the north)
Tornado count: 0
Hail storm count: 1
Miles traveled: 914.32
Total Chase Season Miles: 914.32
I left the Super 8 Wichita east/Kellogg hotel at 9:00 a.m. and blasted down I-35. I arrived in OKC at around 11:10 a.m. and stopped at a Mc'Donalds to pick up a quick bite to eat. Drove down then to Moore and picked up some wifi at a Super 8 there. Decided at that point, that I would head on down to Pauls Valley, OK and check out the latest model progs from there. Picked up some wifi in Pauls Valley and saw towers blowing up to the south. Got back on I-35 and flew down to Ardmore. After driving the 43 miles from Pauls Valley to Ardmore, I noticed on the Threatnet radar that a cell was really getting cooking back behind me to the north. This cell became SVR warned quickly and produced up to 2.5 inch hail near the town of Davis,OK and then over to the town of Sulphur. After nearly getting "cored" near Davis, I shot back down the interstate to get to the south of the storm. I decided to pull over on one of the scenic overlooks to get a better view, and ran into some chasers there. It was a real thrill for me to get to this point. After a few years of really struggling to get to the right spot on the right storm and see some actual chasers who are "well known", I finally feel like I am really learning and getting better.
After leaving the cell in near Davis, moved back down to Ardmore, where I sat and watched radar for about 30 minutes. Obviously, since I have to be back to work on Wednesday, and needed the day on Tuesday to do some laundry and what not, I did not wanted to follow the newly formed supercells into NE Texas. So at around 4:15 p.m. I decided to call it a day and make the trek all the way back up I-35 to KC. Made a stop in Norman, OK and then again in El Dorado, KS for gas and some food and arrived back at home around 11:15 p.m, with a good feeling after my first chase of the 2008 season.
Target Verified: Yes (Severe Storm 20 miles to the north)
Tornado count: 0
Hail storm count: 1
Miles traveled: 914.32
Total Chase Season Miles: 914.32
Monday, March 31, 2008
Severe weather Outbreak Likely Today
Not much time to talk today, as I am currently sitting in Wichita, KS this morning, about to depart for SC Oklahoma. Parameters look to becoming together today for a widespread severe outbreak across C/SC/E Oklahoma, SE Kansas, and SW Missouri. All modes of severe weather are possible today, with the greatest threat of tornadoes across the Eastern half of Oklahoma.Chase Target: Ardmore, Ok
Initiaion time: 2-3 pm
Discussion: The area around Ardmore,ok looks to be the best area, IMO. Forecasted SBCAPE values should be nearing 2500-3000 j/kg by 21 z per the latest RUC. Shear proflies look good in this area, as winds look to back for a period of a few hours this afternoon. Although, it does not look like to me that the latest run of the RUC is showing the development of a surface low in western Oklahoma. This could hurt the possibility of backed winds. Solid Mid 60 dewpoint temperatures already in place this morning across target area. Supercells appear likely across the target area, with tornadoes certainly a possibility.
Monday, March 24, 2008
Chase Chances Dropping...
The chances for a chase this week appear to be dropping. Wednesday's setup looks to be capped badly with 850mb Temperatures reaching 15-20 degrees celcius at 0z. This would pretty much eleminate any chances of convection before dark.
Thursday's setup seems pretty well capped as well, plus the fact that the main energy is pushing into an area of SE Oklahoma which is terrible chase terrain with all of its rolling hills and rocks.
So all in all, I have decreased my chase chances for both days to
20%
NOT LIKELY
There is still time for this to change for the better, but as of now, I will be holding off my first chase of the 2008 season for a better oppurtunity down the road.
Thursday's setup seems pretty well capped as well, plus the fact that the main energy is pushing into an area of SE Oklahoma which is terrible chase terrain with all of its rolling hills and rocks.
So all in all, I have decreased my chase chances for both days to
20%
NOT LIKELY
There is still time for this to change for the better, but as of now, I will be holding off my first chase of the 2008 season for a better oppurtunity down the road.
Friday, March 21, 2008
Severe Weather Possible Mid-Next Week
Severe weather is beginning to look possible next week towards the Wednesday and Thursday time frame.
The picture below is the 12z GFS Dewpoint projection for 0z Thursday(Wednesday evening). The 500 mb winds look to be around 40kts in southwestern Oklahoma as well as the best dewpoints ~ 60 degress. Theta-E advection looks somewhat decent as well. As of this point, which is highly variable, a possible target from Woodward to Altus, OK down to a Wichita Falls, TX line looks to be a good target.
For the chase season, i have come up with a chart for my chase chances for each give situation. Here is the breakdown.
Not likely= 10-20%
Slight chance= 21-40%
Moderate= 41-60%
Likely= 61-80%
Very likely= 81-89%
Definite= 90-100%
Right now i would put the chase chance at 25% for wednesday
SLIGHT CHANCE
Thursday looks like the better chase day of the two. Both surface and upper air dynamics look to be much better on this day, for a severe weather episode.
Look below
The above picture is from today's 12z GFS valid at 0z Friday(Thursday evening). Here you can see the 60-65 degree dewpoint temperatures stretch all the way up into EC Kansas over to WC and N Missouri. The 500 and 850 mb winds are much stronger on Thursday with 60-80 kt 500 MB winds stretching all the way up through KS and MO. Temperatures across this area appear to be near 70-75 degrees. This undoubtdly could be an active severe wx day across parts of the C/S plains if the models continue to trend this way.
A target based on the 12z projections would put me in an west to east line from Wichita to an Indepence to a Pittsburg, KS line.
This day holds much greater severe wx potential, so I will place chances at this time for Thursday at 45%.
MODERATE CHANCE
Chase chances and model trends will again be updated here on the blog very soon....
AP
The picture below is the 12z GFS Dewpoint projection for 0z Thursday(Wednesday evening). The 500 mb winds look to be around 40kts in southwestern Oklahoma as well as the best dewpoints ~ 60 degress. Theta-E advection looks somewhat decent as well. As of this point, which is highly variable, a possible target from Woodward to Altus, OK down to a Wichita Falls, TX line looks to be a good target.
For the chase season, i have come up with a chart for my chase chances for each give situation. Here is the breakdown.
Not likely= 10-20%
Slight chance= 21-40%
Moderate= 41-60%
Likely= 61-80%
Very likely= 81-89%
Definite= 90-100%
Right now i would put the chase chance at 25% for wednesday
SLIGHT CHANCE
Thursday looks like the better chase day of the two. Both surface and upper air dynamics look to be much better on this day, for a severe weather episode.
Look below
The above picture is from today's 12z GFS valid at 0z Friday(Thursday evening). Here you can see the 60-65 degree dewpoint temperatures stretch all the way up into EC Kansas over to WC and N Missouri. The 500 and 850 mb winds are much stronger on Thursday with 60-80 kt 500 MB winds stretching all the way up through KS and MO. Temperatures across this area appear to be near 70-75 degrees. This undoubtdly could be an active severe wx day across parts of the C/S plains if the models continue to trend this way.
A target based on the 12z projections would put me in an west to east line from Wichita to an Indepence to a Pittsburg, KS line.
This day holds much greater severe wx potential, so I will place chances at this time for Thursday at 45%.
MODERATE CHANCE
Chase chances and model trends will again be updated here on the blog very soon....
AP
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
My chase blog and first chase forecast
Hello everyone! I have now finally started my own blog site that will allow me to post my own chase forecasts, chase accounts, and some photos that I will be taking throught the 2008 storm season. This blog will be updated hopefully every few days from now through atleast mid-june
First of all, IMO the 2008 season looks to be an active one. With already a record amount of tornadoes for the month of January and February, the trend looks to continue throughout the rest of the storm season.
As for the next 7-10 days, severe weather looks to be pretty quiet through the upcoming weekend. The next significant trough looks to swing through the plain states sometime in the mid-week time frame next week. Right now it looks like the greatest threat of severe weather would be over areas of Oklahoma and Texas. The 12z run of the GFS hinted at these locations, however, this far out, anything can change. It is worth watching though.....
Looking more towards the Easter time frame from March 21st through March 28th, I look for one and possibly two very good chase oppurtunities, as stronger storm systems should filter in from the pacific.
These forecasts will likely change frequently, so stay stuned for the latest updates. I will try to update atleast every few days.
AP
First of all, IMO the 2008 season looks to be an active one. With already a record amount of tornadoes for the month of January and February, the trend looks to continue throughout the rest of the storm season.
As for the next 7-10 days, severe weather looks to be pretty quiet through the upcoming weekend. The next significant trough looks to swing through the plain states sometime in the mid-week time frame next week. Right now it looks like the greatest threat of severe weather would be over areas of Oklahoma and Texas. The 12z run of the GFS hinted at these locations, however, this far out, anything can change. It is worth watching though.....
Looking more towards the Easter time frame from March 21st through March 28th, I look for one and possibly two very good chase oppurtunities, as stronger storm systems should filter in from the pacific.
These forecasts will likely change frequently, so stay stuned for the latest updates. I will try to update atleast every few days.
AP
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